Risk Factors for Multiple Violations of Protective Orders in Intimate Partner Violence Against Women.

This study examined 1,134 cases of violence against women in intimate partner relationships with violations of protective orders in a monitoring period of up to 15 months. The dynamics of time and violence were analyzed in the cases of multiple violation versus one-time violation, with the objective of identifying and thus neutralizing the risk factors for this type of recidivism. The results showed that early violation, serious physical violence, death threats, as well as jealousy, harassment, and control are related to multiple violation. This article discusses the results in comparison with other research and proposes measures to avoid revictimizations.

Why Is It so Difficult to Investigate Violent Radicalization?

Imagine that you are a researcher interested in disentangling the underlying mechanisms that motivate certain individuals to self-sacrifice for a group or an ideology. Now, visualize that you are one of a few privileged that have the possibility of interviewing people who have been involved in some of the most dramatic terrorist attacks in history. What should you do? Most investigations focused on terrorism do not include empirical data and just a handful of fortunate have made face-to-face interviews with these individuals. Therefore, we might conclude that most experts in the field have not directly met the challenge of experiencing studying violent radicalization in person. As members of a research team who have talked with individuals under risk of radicalization, current, and former terrorists, our main goal with this manuscript is to synopsize a series of ten potential barriers that those interested in the subject might find when making fieldwork, and alternatives to solve them. If all the efforts made by investigators could save the life of a potential victim, prevent an individual from becoming radicalized, or make him/her decide to abandon the violence associated with terrorism, all our work will have been worthwhile.

Multiple-Perpetrator and Solo-Offender Sexual Assaults Between Strangers: Differences and Predictive Variables.

Multiple-perpetrator rape is an under-studied topic, but there has been a recent increase in studies on the differences between multiple-perpetrator sexual offenses and the ones perpetrated by solo offenders. This study aims to have a deeper understanding of the differences between multiple-perpetrator and solo-offender sexual assaults committed by strangers, from a sample of 400 sexual aggressions reported to the Spanish police in 2010. Differences were explored on variables related to characteristics of perpetrators, the assault (approach, control, maintenance, termination, and sexual behavior), and the victims. Data were obtained from police files on sexual assaults committed around the country. Significant differences found were similar to other studies conducted in other countries and proved that multiple perpetrator assaults committed by strangers are a different subtype. Additionally, four predictive variables of multiple-perpetrator rape were identified: older age (OR = 0.943, 95% CI = [0.92, 0.97]), alcohol or drug use (OR = 2.499, 95% CI = [1.50, 4.32]), non-Spanish nationals (OR = 1.980, 95% CI = [1.14, 3.45]), and use of violence to control the victim (OR = 2.465, 95% CI = [1.03, 5.90]). The cultural and leisure characteristics of Spanish society provide facilitating opportunities for multiple-perpetrator rapes and prevention strategies should be urgently addressed.

Why Is It so Difficult to Investigate Violent Radicalization?

Imagine that you are a researcher interested in disentangling the underlying mechanisms that motivate certain individuals to self-sacrifice for a group or an ideology. Now, visualize that you are one of a few privileged that have the possibility of interviewing people who have been involved in some of the most dramatic terrorist attacks in history. What should you do? Most investigations focused on terrorism do not include empirical data and just a handful of fortunate have made face-to-face interviews with these individuals. Therefore, we might conclude that most experts in the field have not directly met the challenge of experiencing studying violent radicalization in person. As members of a research team who have talked with individuals under risk of radicalization, current, and former terrorists, our main goal with this manuscript is to synopsize a series of ten potential barriers that those interested in the subject might find when making fieldwork, and alternatives to solve them. If all the efforts made by investigators could save the life of a potential victim, prevent an individual from becoming radicalized, or make him/her decide to abandon the violence associated with terrorism, all our work will have been worthwhile. (AU)

Psychopathic femicide: The influence of psychopathy on intimate partner homicide.

High scores in psychopathy were associated with acts of violence, and the prevalence of this condition is greater among the prison population than among the general population. In terms of its relation to femicide, two studies, one carried out in Sweden and another in Spain with a prison population, found that psychopathy is an uncommon condition among perpetrators of femicide. This study analyzes 97 cases of femicide in the whole of Spain, in which it was possible to evaluate the degree of psychopathy of the perpetrators using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). The scores are analyzed not only directly, but also in terms of Factors and Facets. The results show an average in the total score of the PCL-R of 14.4, with only 13 subjects (13.4%) presenting scores of 25 or more, and just 3 (3.1%) of these presenting scores of 30 or higher. It was found that, in general, high scores in psychopathy are associated with shorter relationships and less time between the first complaint, the breakup, and the femicide. What is more, characteristics of the victims, such as addiction to toxic substances or economic dependency, also demonstrated a relationship to the scores of the perpetrators of femicide in the PCL-R. Lastly, it was found that the scores in the different dimensions of psychopathy are associated with different types of violence, whereby there was a noteworthy difference between the most explicit violence and control exercised over the partner.

Willingness to sacrifice among convicted Islamist terrorists versus violent gang members and other criminals.

Is terrorism just another form of criminal activity, as many nations' justice systems assume? We offer an initial answer using face-to-face interviews and structured surveys in thirty-five Spanish prisons. Recent theories of extreme sacrifice inform this direct observational and comparative study. Islamist terrorists display levels of self-sacrifice for their primary reference group similar to that of Latino gangs, but greater willingness to sacrifice for primary values than other inmates (non-radical Muslims, Latino gangs, and delinquent bands). This disposition is motivated by stronger perceived injustice, discrimination, and a visceral commitment to such values (risk/radicalization factors). Nevertheless, state authorities, prison staff, and families are (protective/de-radicalization) factors apt to reduce willingness to sacrifice and keep foreign fighters, now being released in large numbers, from returning to terrorism.

Male Perpetrators of Intimate Partner Violence Against Women: A Spanish Typology.

Typological approaches in research of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) have been discussed on the basis of their validity and applicability in professional practice; yet most of the published studies on offender typologies are limited due to the use of relatively small, non-representative samples. The current study explored typologies of IPVAW perpetrators in a large-scale representative Spanish sample (n = 9,731 cases extracted from the Comprehensive Monitoring System of Gender-Based Violence Cases; VioGén System), according to classic batterer typologies proposed by Holtzworth-Munroe and Stuart (1994). To this end, the risk factors measured by the most extended Spanish police recidivism risk assessment tool (Valoración Policial del Riesgo; VPR) were used as clustering variables. Multiple correspondence analyses revealed the appropriateness of a bi-dimensional model to conceptualize IPVAW offender typologies. Our four-group solution may be described based on the levels of instability and antisociality of IPVAW offenders, as objectively measured by VPR5.0 risk indicators. Statistically significant differences between the IPVAW suggested typologies were found on all indicators, except for the presence of perpetrators younger than 24 years old and the presence of bidirectional intimate partner violence, which were equally distributed across the four groups. High instability/low antisociality (HiLa) and high instability/high antisociality (HiHa) individuals shared most risk indicators related to the aggressor's psychological instability; whereas HiHa and low instability/high antisociality (LiHa) men endorsed more antisociality indicators than statistically expected. The low instability/low antisociality (LiLa) group was characterized by the less presence of VPR risk indicators. Although the four subtypes identified in our study resembled classic typologies, we propose a new subtype, with high levels of instability and antisociality (i.e., HiHa). This work contributes to existing knowledge of the heterogeneity of these men, by providing useful typologies that can help inform prevention and treatment.

Is Homicide Followed by Suicide a Phenomenon in Itself? A Comparison of Homicide and Homicide-Suicide in Spain.

The phenomenon of homicide followed by suicide (HS) has a low prevalence worldwide, although the literature has identified that these cases represent a significant percentage in homicide subtypes such as intimate partner homicide or filicide. In the present study, HS (n = 41) and homicides in which the perpetrator did not commit suicide after the event (n = 556) are compared. The information was extracted from police reports of homicides committed in Spain between 2010 and 2012 and belonging to the jurisdictions of the National Police and Civil Guard. The results showed that out of the total number of homicides analyzed, HS accounted for 4.9%, which implies a rate of 0.05 per 100,000 inhabitants. The findings of the study show that the profile of a HS victim of a 52-year-old Spanish woman. The perpetrator is of Spanish origin, 50 years old, unemployed, or retired, with a mental disorder, and with substance use being uncommon at the time of the event. HS events take place at the perpetrator's home, are related to interpersonal conflicts, involve a single perpetrator, several victims, and are mainly committed with a firearm. The findings are mostly consistent with previous studies and the prevalence of HS in the couple setting is highlighted (56.5%). However, the importance of studying cases outside of this setting is emphasized since it has been found that 30.5% of cases involve other family relationships and 13% occurred outside the domestic sphere.

Predicting Serial Stranger Rapists: Developing a Statistical Model From Crime Scene Behaviors.

Stranger rapes are the most difficult cases to solve for the police, especially when a serial rapist is involved. Recent research in offender profiling has focused on generating inferences between crime scene variables and offender characteristics to aid the police investigation. This study aims to develop an empirical model to predict a new case of a serial stranger rapist by analyzing a Spanish sample of 231 one-off and 38 serial sexual offenders. A multivariate logistic regression model that included eight significant crime-related variables was able to predict whether an unknown offender is a one-off or serial rapist based only on the victim's account. The predictive validity of the model was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the result of AUC value indicated a medium predictive capacity. The final model correctly classifies nearly 80% of serial stranger rapist cases. The implications of these findings for criminal investigation are discussed.

The Action System Model: A Typology of Spanish Homicides.

The Action System model offers a scientific foundation to the differentiation and classification of crimes, based on behavioral indicators, allowing the establishment of relationships between the actions carried out by the offender on the crime scene and their characteristics. Although it was originally developed for application to fires, its utility has been tested in distinct criminal typologies, with few studies having considered homicides. The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness and validity of the Action System model to differentiate thematically between the structure of the homicides and to create a typology of simple homicides in Spain, based on the relationships between the modus operandi, characteristics of the victims and characteristics of the offenders. The sample consisted of 448 homicides. Four homicide typologies were identified: Expressive, Adaptive, Integrative and Conservative, which represent 87.5% of the studied cases. Expressive homicides are impulsive, with offenders having criminal records and previously knowing their victims. Adaptive homicides are linked to robberies and sexual aggressions, in which the victim and offender are strangers. Integrative homicides take place in the family environment, specifically female offenders and femicides. Conservative homicides are very well planned, highlighting the presence of post mortem actions. The findings of this work suggest that the Action System model is a useful theoretical framework for the identification of variations in criminal behavior and understanding of the psychological processes underlying the homicides. These results have practical implications in the academic setting, since they offer a global perspective as to how simple homicides in Spain may be differentiated, also within the framework of criminal profiling, specifically, suspect prioritization.

Protocolo para la valoración policial del riesgo de violencia de género (VPR4.0): revisión de su funcionamiento / Protocol for the police gender violence risk assessment (VPR4.0): review of its performance

Introducción: La evaluación y gestión del riesgo de violencia contra la mujer en la pareja es prioritario en contextos policiales, jurídicos y forenses. El presente trabajo analiza el funcionamiento de la última actualización de la herramienta incluida dentro del Sistema VioGén (VPR4.0). Material y método: Se analizaron 7.147 nuevas denuncias por violencia contra la mujer en la pareja, con un seguimiento de 320 días. Se comparó la reincidencia entre niveles de riesgo, calculando parámetros de predicción y la curva de supervivencia. Resultados: La reincidencia policial fue del 14,3% (el 56,5% en los 3 primeros meses) y el VPR4.0 anticipó la reincidencia, la violencia grave y la multirreincidencia significativamente (sensibilidad 79%; especificidad 35%; AUC 0,62; VPP 17%; VPN 91%). A mayor riesgo, menor fue el tiempo hasta la reincidencia. Conclusiones: El VPR4.0 resulta útil para predecir y gestionar el riesgo, más preciso detectando reincidentes (sensibilidad), pero con más aciertos en casos de bajo riesgo (VPN)

Introduction: The assessment and management of risk of intimate partner violence against women is a priority in police, legal and forensic contexts. This work analyzes the performance of the last update of the tool included in the VioGén System (VPR4.0). Material and method: A total of 7,147 new intimate partner violence against women complaints were analyzed, with a follow-up of 320 days. Recidivism between levels of risk was compared, estimating prediction parameters and the survival curve. Results: The police recidivism was 14.3% (56.5% of it in the first 3 months) and the VPR4.0 anticipated significantly recidivism, serious violence and multi-recidivism (sensitivity 79%; specificity 35%; AUC 0.62; PPV 17%; NPV 91%). The greater the risk, the less was the time until recidivism. Conclusions: The VPR4.0 is useful to predict and manage risk, being more accurate in the detection of recidivists (sensitivity), but with more success in cases labeled as low risk (NPV)

Taxonomía de los homicidios de mujeres en las relaciones de pareja / Taxonomy of homicides of women in intimate partner relationships

La prevención de la violencia contra la pareja supone un problema que ha suscitado gran interés a nivel internacional. El homicidio de pareja es el exponente más grave, aunque su prevalencia sea baja y su etiología compleja. Este trabajo revisa brevemente la descripción del problema desde la perspectiva de género y la existencia de asimetría, la perspectiva de la violencia y su descripción de factores de riesgo diferenciales y el modelo ecológico que relaciona variables personales, contextuales y comunitarias, presentando una propuesta más integradora. Se describen los estudios que analizan y comparan perfiles de homicidas, así como la situación en materia de evaluación del riesgo, todo ello con especial atención a las implicaciones para el contexto español. Por último, por su relevancia se discute la existencia de tipologías de homicidas y perfiles más próximos a patrones o dinámicas suicidas (en los homicidios diádicos y los familicidios). La información disponible pone de manifiesto la necesidad de ampliar el estudio de los homicidas de pareja y la dificultad de anticipar muchos de estos casos

Intimate partner violence prevention is a challenge that has received wide international interest. Homicide is the most serious result of this type of violence, although its prevalence is low and its etiology is complex. This paper briefly reviews the description of the problem from a gender perspective and the existence of asymmetry, the perspective of violence and its description of differential risk factors, and the ecological model that connects personal, contextual, and societal variables, presenting a more integrative proposal. Studies analyzing and comparing homicide profiles are described, as well as the state of the art regarding risk assessment, with special attention to the implications for the Spanish context. Finally, due to its relevance, the existence of typologies of homicides as well as profiles closer to suicidal patterns are discussed (in dyadic homicides and familicides). The available information highlights the need to expand the study of intimate partner homicides and the difficulty of anticipating many of these cases

Risk factors related to intimate partner violence police recidivism in Spain / Factores de riesgo asociados con la reincidencia policial en violencia contra la pareja en España

Background/Objective: Some professionals, such as police officers, are required to prevent violent behavior, such as intimate partner violence (IPV). For this task they use actuarial tools designed to estimate the risk of occurrence of further violence after a previous complaint (police recidivism), taking into account risk and protective indicators which they can observe, in spite of they are not behavioral assessment experts. Method: To try to refine the police risk assessments carried out in Spain since 2007 and to improve the two tools available on the Spanish VioGén System, Police Risk Assessment and Risk Evolution (VPR3.1 and VPER3.0), this paper, using an epidemiological design, in a sample of 6,613 new cases of IPV of Spain, studies empirical relationships among 65 indicators (56 risk and 9 protection) and IPV police recidivism up to six months. Results: It resulted in a recidivism rate of 7.4%, finding statistically significant associations of 46 indicators. Conclusions: Empirical evidence about static indicators and new relevant dynamic indicators in the victims’ police protection management is presented. Practical implications for future police risk assessments are discussed (AU)

Antecedentes/Objetivo: Algunos profesionales, como los policías, tienen la obligación de actuar para prevenir comportamientos violentos, como en la violencia contra la pareja (VCP). Para ello se ayudan de herramientas actuariales diseñadas para estimar el riesgo de ocurrencia de nueva violencia después de una denuncia previa (reincidencia en el ámbito policial), atendiendo a aquellos indicadores de riesgo y de protección que estén a su alcance al no ser expertos en evaluación de conductas. Método: Para tratar de afinar más en las valoraciones policiales de riesgo que se realizan en España desde el año 2007 y perfeccionar las dos herramientas con que cuenta el Sistema VioGén español, Valoración Policial del Riesgo y Evolución del Riesgo (VPR3.1 y VPER3.0), en este trabajo se ha utilizado un diseño epidemiológico para estudiar, en una muestra de 6.613 nuevos casos de VCP de España, las relaciones empíricas existentes entre 65 indicadores (56 de riesgo y 9 de protección) y la reincidencia policial en VCP a seis meses. Resultados: Resultó una tasa de reincidencia del 7,4%, encontrándose asociaciones estadísticamente significativas en 46 indicadores. Conclusiones: Se presenta evidencia empírica sobre indicadores estáticos y nuevos indicadores dinámicos importantes en la gestión de la protección policial de las víctimas. Se discuten las implicaciones prácticas para futuras valoraciones policiales de riesgo (AU)

Risk factors related to intimate partner violence police recidivism in Spain.

Background/Objective: Some professionals, such as police officers, are required to prevent violent behavior, such as intimate partner violence (IPV). For this task they use actuarial tools designed to estimate the risk of occurrence of further violence after a previous complaint (police recidivism), taking into account risk and protective indicators which they can observe, in spite of they are not behavioral assessment experts. Method: To try to refine the police risk assessments carried out in Spain since 2007 and to improve the two tools available on the Spanish VioGén System, Police Risk Assessment and Risk Evolution (VPR3.1 and VPER3.0), this paper, using an epidemiological design, in a sample of 6,613 new cases of IPV of Spain, studies empirical relationships among 65 indicators (56 risk and 9 protection) and IPV police recidivism up to six months. Results: It resulted in a recidivism rate of 7.4%, finding statistically significant associations of 46 indicators. Conclusions: Empirical evidence about static indicators and new relevant dynamic indicators in the victims' police protection management is presented. Practical implications for future police risk assessments are discussed.

Antecedentes/Objetivo: Algunos profesionales, como los policías, tienen la obligación de actuar para prevenir comportamientos violentos, como en la violencia contra la pareja (VCP). Para ello se ayudan de herramientas actuariales diseñadas para estimar el riesgo de ocurrencia de nueva violencia después de una denuncia previa (reincidencia en el ámbito policial), atendiendo a aquellos indicadores de riesgo y de protección que estén a su alcance al no ser expertos en evaluación de conductas. Método: Para tratar de afinar más en las valoraciones policiales de riesgo que se realizan en España desde el año 2007 y perfeccionar las dos herramientas con que cuenta el Sistema VioGén español, Valoración Policial del Riesgo y Evolución del Riesgo (VPR3.1 y VPER3.0), en este trabajo se ha utilizado un diseño epidemiológico para estudiar, en una muestra de 6.613 nuevos casos de VCP de España, las relaciones empíricas existentes entre 65 indicadores (56 de riesgo y 9 de protección) y la reincidencia policial en VCP a seis meses. Resultados: Resultó una tasa de reincidencia del 7,4%, encontrándose asociaciones estadísticamente significativas en 46 indicadores. Conclusiones: Se presenta evidencia empírica sobre indicadores estáticos y nuevos indicadores dinámicos importantes en la gestión de la protección policial de las víctimas. Se discuten las implicaciones prácticas para futuras valoraciones policiales de riesgo.

Eficacia predictiva de la valoración policial del riesgo de la violencia de género / Predictive effectiveness of the police risk assessment in intimate partner violence

Para prevenir la violencia de género se desarrolló el protocolo denominado «valoración policial del riesgo» (VPR) para su uso por profesionales de las fuerzas de seguridad del Estado. Este protocolo es el núcleo principal del sistema VioGén, del Ministerio del Interior español, y que se aplica de forma reglamentaria en todas las situaciones de violencia de género denunciadas. Para evaluar la eficacia predictiva de la VPR se realizó un estudio longitudinal prospectivo con un seguimiento de 3 y 6 meses de 407 mujeres que habían denunciado ser víctimas de violencia por parte de su pareja o expareja. Los resultados obtenidos por medio del análisis de regresión logística ofrecen una AUC = 0.71 para intervalos de tiempo en riesgo de 3 meses (p < .003) y con una odds ratio de 6.58 (IC 95%: 1.899-22.835). La sensibilidad de la VPR fue del 85% y la especificidad, del 53.7%. Los resultados indican que la VPR muestra una buena capacidad predictiva y unas características psicométricas adecuadas para la tarea para la que se diseñó

To prevent gender violence it was developed the protocol called Police Risk Assessment (VPR) for use by professionals of the State Security Forces. This protocol is the core of VioGen System of the Spanish Interior Ministry and which applies to regulation in all reported gender violence situations. To assess the predictive effectiveness of the VPR, a prospective longitudinal study was performed followed for 3 and 6 months of 407 women who reported being victims of violence from their partner or former partner. The results obtained by logistic regression analysis provide an AUC = 0.71 for time intervals at risk for three months (P < .003), with an odds ratio of 6.58 (95% CI: 1.899-22.835). VPR sensitivity was 85% and specificity was 53.7%. The results indicate that the VPR shows good predictive ability and suitable psychometric characteristics for the task for which it was designed